图3 三大主产国 北京科技大学国际学院

Zhejiang Futures: either running attention to South American production clients view the latest market background, a pile up in excess of requirement has not changed, the subsequent attention South America (a) global soybean yield adjustment is still oversupply 1, global soybean supply and demand from the static static state prediction of supply and demand of the United States Department of agriculture report, 20152016 annual global soybean production last year and almost the same, and the world soybean consumption demand is expected to grow 4% compared to last year. Although production growth is less than consumer demand, but the global inventory continues to backlog, inventory consumption rose to 26.44%. Figure 1 global soybean supply and demand data source: USDA Figure 2 global stocks and stock consumption ratio data source: USDA 2, sub regional supply rhythm region supply rhythm, in the spring of 2016 in the spring of 2015, an increase of 7.8% compared with the supply, supply growth has come down, but in the context of pre inventory accumulated under the supply pressure has not yet appeared signs mitigation. Figure 3 the three major producing countries (the United States, Brazil, South America) data sources of supply: USDA 4 three major producing countries (the United States, Brazil, South America) data sources of supply: USDA (two) follow up focus on South American output adjustment in January the U.S. Department of agriculture supply and demand report maintenance in Brazil and Argentina with the South American soybean production forecast unchanged. Harvest approaching, a higher likelihood of subsequent yield adjustment of South American supply and demand report. Although the early stage of speculation South American weather soybean crop, but did not cause significant harm, substantive and so on subsequent South American production market is still relatively confused how to adjust the supply and demand, investors can focus on the follow-up report the Ministry of agriculture of the South American production adjustment. Figure 5: Brazil production (millions of tons) data source: USDA Figure 6: Argentina production (millions of tons) source: USDA two, the domestic supply of abundant, soybean spot or low weak run domestic soybean imports after 6 consecutive months to maintain significantly higher than the same period in history, estimated this month to Hong Kong 6 million 40 thousand tons, lower than the same period last year to Hong Kong, abundant new supply. Soybean inventories in China’s oil refineries are similar to those of last month, and are still in a higher position in the same period of history. As a whole, domestic soybean supplies are abundant. Figure 6: prediction of domestic soybean imports (million tons) source: Tianxialiangcang Zhejiang futures Figure 7: domestic oil soybean stocks (million tons) source: Tianxialiangcang and last month to further enhance the soybean spot inventory, inventory levels remain high in the same period in the history of. Adequate supply of soybean meal spot will suppress the domestic soybean meal spot price, domestic soybean meal spot material to maintain low, weak operation. Figure 8: domestic coastal oil plant soybean meal Inventory (10000 tons) data source: World granary three, oil (1) rapeseed oil throwing storage, the end of last year, the national rapeseed oil once again throwing storage, plans to throw the number of storage significantly larger than last year in May the number of throwing storage. Because Shunjiaxiaoshou, the cast storage turnover rate is higher in recent weeks to throw storage.

浙商期货:美豆区间运行 关注南美产量 客户端 查看最新行情   一、供过于求大背景未变,后续关注南美产量调整   (一)全球大豆依旧供应过剩   1、全球大豆静态供需   从美国农业部供需报告的静态预估来看,2015 2016年度全球大豆产量与去年几乎持平,而全球大豆消费需求预计相比去年增长4%。虽然产量增幅不及消费需求,但全球库存继续积压,库存消费比预估上升至26.44%。   图1 全球大豆供需   数据来源:USDA   图2 全球库存及库存消费比   数据来源:USDA   2、分地区看供应节奏   分地区供应节奏来看,2016年春季供应较2015年春季同比增加7.8%,供应增速虽有所回落,但在前期库存累计的背景下,供应压力尚未出现缓减的迹象。   图3 三大主产国(美、巴西、南美)供应量   数据来源:USDA   图4 三大主产国(美、巴西、南美)供应量   数据来源:USDA   (二)重点关注后续南美产量调整   美国农业部1月供需报告维持巴西与阿根廷产量预估不变,随着南美大豆收割临近,后续供需报告对南美产量调整的可能性较高。虽然前期阶段性炒作南美天气影响大豆作物生长,但均未造成实质性地重大伤害,因此,市场对后续的南美产量如何调整依旧比较迷茫,投资者可重点关注后续农业部供需报告对南美产量的调整。   图5:巴西产量(单位:百万吨)   数据来源:USDA   图6:阿根廷产量(单位:百万吨)   数据来源:USDA   二、国内供应充裕,豆粕现货或低位偏弱运行   国内大豆进口量在连续6个月保持大幅高于历史同期之后,本月预估到港量604万吨,低于去年同期到港量,新增供应充裕。国内油厂大豆库存与上月库存相当,依旧处在历史同期较高位置,整体来看,国内大豆供应充裕。   图6:国内大豆进口预估(万吨)   数据来源:天下粮仓 浙商期货   图7:国内油厂大豆库存(万吨)   数据来源:天下粮仓   而豆粕现货库存较上月进一步提升,库存水平也维持在历史同期高位。豆粕现货端供应充裕将压制国内豆粕现货价格,国内豆粕现货料维持低位偏弱运行。   图8:国内沿海油厂豆粕库存(万吨)   数据来源:天下粮仓   三、油脂   (一)菜籽油抛储   去年年底,国家菜籽油再次抛储,计划抛储数量明显大于去年5月份的抛储数量。由于顺价销售,此次抛储的成交率较高,近几周抛储成交率都在50%以上。菜油抛储增加市场供应,菜油近月合约也明显受到压制。   图9 菜籽油历年收储情况   数据来源:浙商期货   相比于此次抛储,去年5月份开始的菜籽油抛储增加的市场供应十分有限,但上次抛储事件依旧促使菜油远近价差大幅走高。因此,菜籽油抛储未结束之前,菜油买远卖近操作都相对安全。   图10 抛储期间1601-1509价差走势   数据来源:wind资讯   (二)棕榈油砷超标事件   近期棕榈油广东黄埔、新沙连续从印尼进口的3条棕榈油船检测出砷超标,货物被封存并上报国家质检总局。由于我国从印尼进口棕榈油占比逐年提升,该消息也引起了市场较大恐慌,促使棕榈油短期大幅走高。   图11 马来西亚与印尼棕榈油年度进口量   数据来源:wind资讯   但我国国内棕榈油库存依旧较大,在季节性需求十分疲软的背景下,棕榈油商业库存持续走高,因此,我们认为该事件继续发酵可能性较低。   图12 棕榈油商业库存   数据来源:wind资讯   四、操作建议   (一)中长期观点   我们预估2016年CBOT大豆前低后高,上半年期价维持低位震荡可能性较大,不排除进一步下跌,上方压力在900-950美分,下方初步关注800美分支撑,或者美豆期价稳定,南美贴水下行达到相同效果。而下半年,厄尔尼诺终结通常伴随着CBOT大豆见底,上方初步关注1050-1150美分的目标和压力,更高价位需要天气配合。   2016上半年,国内豆粕基本面很难摆脱弱势格局,上方关注2600压力,而下半年如果外盘配合,则可关注做多配置机会。   2016年上半年,油强粕弱格局仍将延续,油脂大底部确认得到市场认可,棕榈油下方4200支撑,豆油下方5200支撑,以及菜油抛储价5300附近支撑可认为是大底部。油脂对冲方面,投资者可重点关注菜油抛储接近尾声之后的买菜油抛豆油的潜在机会。   (二)短期建议   市场虽然阶段性炒作南美天气,但前期几次炒作均未造成南美作物产量的实质性影响。在美国农业部二月供需报告公布前,CBOT大豆上方依旧关注900美分压力,下方关注800-850美分支撑。在人民币汇率稳定的前提下,国内豆粕跟随CBOT大豆走势,维持低位震荡可能性较大。投资者重点关注春节期间的美国农业部供需报告,报告大概率会调整南美大豆产量预估。   油脂方面,棕榈油砷超标事件虽短期驱动棕榈油期价走高,但预计该事件影响将逐步消失,国内棕榈油依旧面临下游消费不佳问题,投资者后期重点关注MPOB报告的棕榈油产量变化;在粕类供应充裕的背景下,豆油供应被动限制,豆油期价维持近高远低可能性较大,投资者可择机滚动豆油买近卖远组合;菜油抛储依旧在进行中,在此背景下,菜油买09卖05组合操作依旧安全,投资者可维持滚动操作。   浙商期货 胡华挺 陈少文 潘?? 新浪声明:新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。相关的主题文章: